Aug 24, 2009

Bank robberies in the recession

I did a double-take on this one: The number of bank robberies has decreased since last year. Yes, decreased.

This might be nothing more than a statistical aberration, or it could say something interesting about crime. There are two competing forces here: (1) the recession has led to more people in desperate need of money, and (2) the recession has led to lower expected rewards for bank robberies because there is less money in the banks [I am guessing this is true, but it could be that more people are taking money out of securities and putting it into banks instead, in which case this trend would make no sense at all]. If this trend is more than an aberration, it could mean that (pure speculation here), contrary to popular belief, the primary driver of crime is expected reward, not desperation.

Hat tip to Freakonomics, which adds this tidbit:

Bank robbers are most likely to rob a bank between 9 a.m. and 11 a.m. on Friday; more robbers stated their demands verbally than by passing a note, and only 4 percent of incidents involved violence.