Forget predicting who will win the tournament. I think a much more interesting question is who will lose the tournament. Specifically, I am talking about the team who lost to the team who lost to the team who lost to the team who lost to the team who lost.
Think for a moment, which seed would you expect to be the losingest team?
If the favored team always won, the losingest team would be the 11th seed in the region with the fourth number 1 seed.
Here is how it has actually played out since 2002:
Year - Seed - Team
2009 - 4 - Wake Forest
2008 - 11 - Kentucky
2007 - 13 - N Mexico St
2006 - 3 - Iowa
2005 - 14 - Winthrop
2004 - 5 - Florida
2003 - 4 - Dayton
2002 - 16 - Boston
Of these 8 seasons, the losingest team came from the following first round match-up.
1 vs 16: 1/8
2 vs. 15: 0/8
3 vs. 14: 2/8
4 vs. 13: 3/8
5 vs. 12: 1/8
6 vs. 11: 1/8
7 vs. 10: 0/8
8 vs. 9: 0/8
*Peter Singer and Christian Ethics*
1 hour ago