I took a quick look at the responses this evening and I am astounded -- almost disbelieving -- at the accuracy of the average estimates. I'll explain more when I post the results but this post is for two reasons: (1) to ask you to fill out the stupid survey if you have not already -- so far there are 21 responses and I would feel much better to reach 30, and (2) to clarify why I am doing this because there seems to be some confusion...
With this survey, I am not testing individuals' "intelligence" or "wisdom" (as I have before, with results here). I fully expect individual responses to be wildly off (as my own guesses were). And these questions say nothing about "wisdom" because these are trivialities that just happen to have the property of being easily answerable with a Google search and maybe a couple punches of the calculator, which is important for what I am trying to do: I am trying to test the crowd's "wisdom" -- that is, the accuracy of the average response.
I dislike the phrase "wisdom of the crowd" to describe the phenomenon of errors cancelling each other out, but that's what it has become popularly known as so that is why I use the word "wise". But please do not confuse this as a test of your judgment.
Also, fair warning: I am feeling very inspired by the results of this survey so expect many more such surveys, and soon.
Bankruptcy tourism
1 hour ago