2010/2011 NFL, NBA, and MLB championship probabilities

I was curious to see how the Miami Heat's summer coup affected their probability of winning the NBA championship, and while I was at it I looked at the NFL and MLB probabilities as well. Using Yahoo! Sports, I aggregated the odds from various sources (all of which were pretty similar), did a quick transformation to probabilities, and charted the results below. {click to enlarge}



Some thoughts and observations:

-- Wow for the Miami Heat -- a 28% probability for a team that has never played together! I agree they should be the favorites over the Lakers but I suspect the second tier teams like Boston, Orlando, and Chicago are not given enough credit.
-- The NFL is a pretty smooth curve, suggesting that no teams really stand out from the rest. However, there is a pretty sharp decline past the top nine teams.
-- (I was pleasantly surprised to see my team of choice, the San Diego Chargers, with nearly as high of a probability as last season's Super Bowl teams.)
-- If I were a betting man, I would be shorting the Yankees hard right now. I have not been paying attention to baseball this season but just from what I know about the coin-flip nature of the game, there is no way the Yankees have double the probability of the next best team.