Aug 31, 2010

2011 NCAA Football Championship Probabilities

I posted earlier about the 2011 Super Bowl probabilities (along with NBA and MLB championship probabilities). The odds recently came in for NCAA football and here are the results as probabilities: {click to enlarge}



Very interesting to see that despite the NCAA's 119 teams compared to the NFL's 32, the best NCAA teams apparently have a better chance of winning a championship than the NFL's best teams.

I would love to know how these figures compare to what you would get if you went around and asked each fan group to estimate their team's probability of winning. I'd bet that, on average, fans are overly optimistic by a factor of three.