Jun 30, 2010

The futility of scholarly research

Criticisms of scholarly research usually target (1) incentives facing the researchers -- for example, using excessive math to look impressive or exaggerating claims to garner attention and continued funding -- or (2) incentives facing the media who report the research -- for example, tweaking the language in a way that may not be accurate in order to maximize entertainment or shock value.

Although said in jest, I think Scott Adams's observation from his book The Dilbert Principle about incentives facing readers is equally as damning:

Nobody believes statistics anyway. This is a huge time-saver for me as an author. It removes any guilt I might have about fabricating statistics. If you're a "normal" person, you tend to believe any studies that support your current views and ignore everything else. Therefore, any reference I might make to legitimate research is wasted. If we can agree on the futility of trying to sway you with legitimate research it will save us both a lot of trouble.

That doesn't mean I will ignore statistics. Far from it. Throughout this book I will make references to scientific studies. Of course, they'll all be total fabrications. But my versions will make better reading than legitimate research, and ultimately the impact is the same.

Jun 29, 2010

A List: The most enjoyable, insightful, and well-written books I've read

For no other reason than because I am a geek about collecting and analyzing data on myself, I compiled a list of all the books I have read or skimmed in the past couple of years. For each book, I put approximately how long it took (or would take) me to read the whole thing, and then I rated it 1 to 10 on how enjoyable, insightful, and well-written I perceived it to be. You can view the whole list of 71 titles here. I will plan to keep it updated fairly regularly.

I would caution against taking these as recommendations because (1) I don't believe it is possible or practical to make sweeping generalizations about which books people will find enjoyable or insightful, and (2) insight comes mostly from sentences, not books: (Hat tip: Ben Casnocha)

What I have learned from about twenty-years of serious reading is this: It is sentences that change my life, not books. What changes my life is some new glimpse of truth, some powerful challenge, some resolution to a long-standing dilemma, and these usually come concentrated in a sentence or two. I do not remember 99% of what I read, but if the 1% of each book or article I do remember is a life-changing insight, then I don’t begrudge the 99%.

Jun 27, 2010

Intensity and profitability in sports



My new favorite football (soccer) coach is Diego Maradona of Argentina. (See this Yahoo article, these photos, and his 'goal of the century' from 1986.) His fierce intensity and unpredictability make me grin in much the same way as my favorite baseball player, Carlos Zambrano.



I can understand why many people dislike these intense and tenacious figures, especially when you are a fan of the opposing team, but would anyone argue that having such a figure present does not make the game considerably more exciting? My question is this: Since the currency of sports is excitement, why then do owners and coaches and referees not encourage intensity among the participants instead of constantly trying to suppress it?

Even assuming that athletes generally perform better when they are even-tempered, and even assuming that super-intense athletes create disharmony among the team, I still question why there is not more encouragement of intensity because, while they'll never admit it, the goal of a sports franchise is not to maximize wins but to maximize profit, which is done by maximizing excitement. It's why David Beckham in the twilight of his career could demand such a sizable salary from the LA Galaxy -- not because he increased their win probability as much as increased their excitement quotient.

If I ever owned an American Football team, my first move would be to recruit Yokozuna Sumo Wrestlers for the offensive line. That should be fairly easy since they earn only $30,000 in Japan, and fairly profitable since who wouldn't want to watch a sumo wrestler play football? Because speed is exciting, I'd recruit Usain Bolt to be a wide out. To complement his speed, one of my tailbacks would be the shortest and fastest guy I could find (like Darren Sproles), and the other tailback (fullback, really) would be the largest and most intimidating Sumo Wrestler I could find. Contrary to popular belief, it is extremely exciting to watch a 400 pound man run the ball.

My quarterback, of course, would be Michael Vick. His speed and unpredictability (not to mention his discounted price tag) would fit beautifully into the offensive system. On the defensive side, I would have a potent mixture of long-haired players from American Somoa and semi-sane ex-convicts whose neck muscles are in a constant state of strain. To top it all off, warm-up routines would consist of the Maori-Haka dance.

Is there any doubt that this would be the team with both the lowest payroll in the NFL and the highest TV ratings, by far? If not, please explain, efficient market theorists, why don't football franchises structure their teams this way?

Oh, and my coaches? These guys, of course.

Squibs

People thrive when they have a sense of (1) belonging, (2) predictability, and (3) community.

Throughout history, the percentage of women who go their whole lives without having children rarely dipped below 10%, even among the most enthusiastic breeding societies. It was 23% in 1920s America. (From Elizabeth Gilbert's Committed)

Nerves and focus go hand in hand.

Because growth curves are asymptotic, I am convinced it is better to get pretty good at a lot of things rather than investing your scarce time in becoming marginally better at a couple of things.

The main lesson of Malcolm Gladwell's Blink is that snap judgments can be effective only if not clouded by prejudices, and that prejudices can be trained out of us.

Whenever you start to use words like 'always' and 'never' you have murdered any chance of intellectual discourse.

I am not sure I agree with this, but it's an interesting hypothesis: Everyone has a default emotion.

"Giants of science not only can tell the immediate meaning of their findings but can also extrapolate their broader implications." -Nobel Laureate Eric Kandel. I suspect this is true for a much broader swath of disciplines than just science.

To philosophize is to learn how to die (so we can learn how to live).

Describing something seriously impairs your ability to visually recognize it because we have two parts of memory -- words and pictures -- and describing something makes words replace pictures.

"Make the certainty of your mortality structure the life that you live freely now."

Jun 26, 2010

Betting markets say Cleveland is now likely to lose the LeBron sweepstakes

The Cleveland Cavaliers' odds on Intrade have nose-dived from 55% to 16%, probably because of the Chicago Bulls' move to trade Kirk Hinrich, freeing enough cap room for the Bulls to take two high-profile free agents.



This is sad news for the city of Cleveland for whom it is said only half-jokingly that "our economy is based on LeBron James." (49 second video)

..."At least we're not Detroit."

I am a proud son of the Rust Belt, and I am optimistic that the rock bottom real estate prices can lead to a slow revival, but I'm just glad my family got out of there in 2000 so we can observe it from a distance.

Jun 23, 2010

A personal thank you from Steve Martin



Click to enlarge. (Hat tip: Ben Casnocha)

Also, I posted this earlier, his business card:

Jun 22, 2010

A Visual History of the American Presidency

The talented folks behind Timeplots sent me a copy of their latest infographic poster called A Visual History of the American Presidency. What follows is my review and observations. Timeplots is in no way compensating me for this review. This is a sincere testimonial.



Timeplots seems determined to pack as many dimensions of information as they can into their posters, which is not surprising considering that the co-founder, Nathaniel Pearlman, is a student and disciple of Edward Tufte. I think it is a safe bet that this is the single most informative poster on U.S. presidents ever made. Whereas a normal poster might present a photo and brief bio of each president, this poster shows you Senate and House situation, popularity, Supreme Court influence, Cabinet additions (or subtractions), inflation, GDP growth, unemployment, budget revenue and outlays as a percentage of GDP, presidents' background and qualifications, rank (as determined by various historians), electoral voting, population, real GDP, and partisan swings -- and most impressively it presents these data in an easily digestible manner. This is a wonderful resource for all U.S. History geeks and all infographic nerds.

One could peruse the poster for hours, and after a ~20 minute study, here are some of my observations:

  • I did not realize the Democratic Party had such dominance over both the House and Senate from the early 1930s to the mid 1990s.
  • It's interesting to see the presidents' influence on the Supreme Court -- FDR had a huge influence while Carter had none.
  • Nixon over McGovern and Reagan over Mondale were dominant victories, with each only losing one state.
  • The most disturbing fact to me is not the exploding size of the budget deficit but the exploding size of the Cabinet.
  • The president with the most diverse set of qualifications = James Monroe. Runner-up = Martin Van Buren? Least qualified = Grover Cleveland.
  • The presidents' popularity is all over the map. Two interesting patterns, however: Clinton had a slight but steady increase in popularity, while G.W. Bush had a precipitous and steady decline.
  • The economy appears to be considerably less spiky since the 1950s.
  • The Great Depression was Bad. To even suggest a comparison of the current economic situation to the Great Depression (I'm looking at you, Taleb) is at best vastly overestimating the current problem and at worst fear mongering.

I commend Timeplots for another fantastic piece of work, and I very much look forward to their next projects. From a Q&A on Cool Infographics, Nathaniel says that their list of ideas has already swelled to fifty or sixty.

Also of interest from the same Q&A, Nathaniel had this to say about the business of infographic posters:

I am enjoying Timeplots. As a profit-generating business, it is not for the faint-of-heart. I am lucky to have some time and space to try it, but it is unlikely to run in the black for quite some time. My first company, NGP Software, Inc. (www.ngpsoftware.com) is doing well and allows me to do this on the side.

###

My review of their first poster: A Visual History of the Supreme Court of the United States

Jun 21, 2010

Won't you be my advisor? (part II)

I am posting this again because I received fewer responses than expected. Maybe people are not interested in offering their advice, and if so that's fine. Or maybe a bunch of people stopped reading this blog. But I am optimistic in believing that I probably was not clear enough in the original post: I am not looking for advice only from people who have experience in start-ups or who are marketing experts or whatever -- I want advice from anyone who is willing to provide it. Like Twitter, this web site will be aimed at a mass audience, so anyone can offer valuable feedback about how you would like to use the site, how you would like it to look, and what you would like to do with it.

Thanks again for your attention.

Squibs

Life goes well (only?) when reason and passion are unified toward the same goal.

The role of reason is seeking that which we want to find ourselves committed to. Reason does not change habits; reason just tells you in what direction you want your habits to be changed.

We like stories because they depict the sort of things that we would like in real life, and we get pleasure from them because of "alief" -- our inability to distinguish imagination from reality.

What matters is not the experience but the representation of the experience. What matters is not the argument but the terms in which the argument is framed.

The biggest problem with the theory of evolution is that it does not give us comfort about death.

Market research is too blunt to pick up the difference between bad and different.

We do not have access to the Why's of our beliefs. When we explain our beliefs, we start with the end in mind and then search backwards for a plausible-sounding story for how we arrived at that end. This would not be such a problem if it weren't for the fact that when you say you believe something for reasons X, Y, and Z, your mind immediately takes a defensive position against any contradictory evidence. My solution: I try to stray from saying anything more than what I believe, and I note that why I believe it is inaccessible.

I heard somewhere that there exists a critical period in which people become religious (i.e. holding belief in a deity) and that if you don't become religious during that window then you are unlikely to ever become religious (not unlike the critical period for language). It might seem like a minor factoid, but if that's true, that seems like pretty convincing evidence that religion is a purely biological phenomenon and not some transcendental journey to find a creator and/or savior.

From an evolutionary perspective, something as costly as religion (doing all your religious rituals when you could be finding food or making babies or preparing your military) would certainly be selected against if it were not useful.

The world rewards signs of merit rather than merit itself. A subtle but important distinction.

Jun 20, 2010

Guest Post: The Saudia Arabia of Lithium

I am always surprised when, every so often, I get a request to do a guest post. I am a small fish in the blog pond, but I am happy to open the blog to anyone who has something to say or something to promote.

This guest post is contributed by Alexis Bonari, who regularly writes on the topic of online degrees. The site, by the way, has an interesting infographic called Life After College: The Frightening Facts of a Postgraduate Outlook.

(I have not edited the content in any way, nor do I necessarily endorse anything said.)

---

According to published reports Afghanistan may be the next booming mining town. The US reports that they have discovered approximately 1 trillion dollars worth of various precious metals and minerals. That’s $1,000,000,000,000 for those of you not in the know. In other words; one thousand billion dollars or one million, million dollars! Pretty darn impressive however you say, or write it. This writer recently tried to get a comment about the extraordinary find from the Energizer Bunny, a person with direct ties to inside information, but I was unable to hear the bunny’s answer to my question over the lithium battery powered drums he was clanging together at light speed with excitement.

A WAY OUT

This is exciting news for the people of Afghanistan. They can now get out of the Heroin Business for good. No more backsliding just to make a few million bucks. The importance for the rest of us is that among the stores of minerals are large reserves of Lithium. Lithium is used to make the long life batteries we all know and love and that are used to power up our most popular devices such as cell phones, laptops and everything else. It is said the newly discovered lithium reserves are even larger than those in Bolivia where most light metals and lithium come from currently.

DID WE KNOW?

Was this known before the war? I think all of you out there that call these wars oil wars, were way off. These are mineral wars. And now it is crystal clear that bedsides Osama Bin Laden, there's gold in them their hills! Among the other precious metals and minerals found were rich veins of iron, copper, cobalt and gold. In 10 years Afghanistan could very well be a world powerhouse in mining. The Japanese have already jumped into the game and are offering President Karzai lots of financial and technical help. The rest of the world powers are also starting to come out of the wood work.

BREAKING NEWS

Afghanistan's mining minister Waheedullah Shahrani announced Thursday June 17th 2010 that mineral deposits in his country could be worth up to three trillion dollars, 3,000,000,000,000. This tripling a US estimate which was announced earlier in the week. OK, so now can we get the hell out of there and bring our soldiers home?

Jun 18, 2010

Won't you be my advisor?

Three months from today, I expect to have a web site ready for testing. The concept of the web site, as simply as I can describe it, is ‘Twitter with surveys’. However, that description is somewhat misleading because surveys are not what I anticipate will be the main draw of the site. It is an ambitious project and I am going to heavily rely on feedback, and that is the purpose of this post: to ask your permission to ask you for feedback.

I will want to ask for feedback on features, design, programming, pricing, prospects, name, logo and everything in between. If you are willing and interested, please fill out the survey below. If you don’t want to be part of the advisory mailings but do want to receive updates, only fill in your email.

Thanks for your help!

Jun 17, 2010

TV ratings (and other random stats) in perspective [charts]

Inspired by a stat-heavy article in Time called Why World Cup TV Ratings Are So Strong, I created the chart below showing the ratings for a number of major TV events. Blue bars are sporting events and maroonish bars are everything else.




Then, a few minutes later, I saw the article Record Number of US Kids Facing Summer of Hunger and was inspired to add a few more random stats to the chart...



It fascinates me that 52% of the US population uses Google every month and 43% visit Facebook. On the one hand that seems impressively large, but on the other hand, where is everyone else? How is it that nearly half of the population do not use Google every month, and how is it that 65% of the US population skips out of watching the Super Bowl? Who are those people and what are they doing instead?

Jun 16, 2010

Bob Knight commencement address

Last month at Trine University, Bob Knight told stories about Coach K, Michael Jordan, and everything in between. (Runs 36 minutes) (Hat tip: The Door)

I think I could curl up on the carpet and listen to Coach Knight tell stories all day long.

Jun 15, 2010

Apple's 'lost' founders

All Things Considered has an interview with Ron Wayne:

On April Fools' Day 1976, he got together with Jobs and Wozniak to write Apple's incorporation document. He typed up the three pages himself, and even designed the company's first logo. But only 12 days later, Wayne left Apple and a 10 percent stake in the company that today would be worth billions. Wayne now lives in a modest home in Pahrump, Nev., just outside Las Vegas — and survives, primarily, off his Social Security check and a small business selling vintage coins.

So there's that. Another lesser-known but considerably wealthier Apple co-founder is Mike Markkula. His Wikipedia page tells his story: Markkula made millions on stock options he acquired as a marketing manager for Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel and, in 1974, retired at the ripe old age of 32. Steve Jobs, who was referred to Markkula by a venture capitalist, then lured him out of his premature retirement to join Apple as co-founder and CEO.


Steve Jobs and Mike Markkula circa 1977

Most interesting to me is what Markkula is doing now: He is an investor and an adviser for a company called Crowd Technologies which concentrates on social networks and the "wisdom of the crowd" including a product called Piqqem for social investing. (TechCrunch wrote a not-so-kind review in 2008.) This intrigues me because 'Crowd Technologies' sounds very much in line with the company I plan to create (only without the investing part). I want to know how this one social investing company was able to get Markkula on their side.

For being an Apple co-founder, Markkula has a rather scant appearance on the Inter-Web. I was only able to find a couple of seconds of video of him (here; skip to the very end). With any luck, he will have a Google Alert for his name and he will come find me and want to be my investor, adviser, and best friend.

---

Speaking of Apple and Steve Jobs... While I have so far remained unfazed by the Steve Jobs fanaticism I observe around me, I am a fanboy of one of Jobs's biggest fanboys, Charlie Rose. I am very curious to know why Rose, who gets a glimmer in his eye whenever he talks about Jobs (typically 2-3x per half hour), has interviewed him only once, in 1996, for 23 minutes, with another guest doing most of the talking and scenes from Toy Story intermixed. It is always fun to play the bar game "which celebrity or world leader has Charlie Rose not interviewed". There are impressively few, so I want to know why Jobs appeared only once. True, Jobs tends to be media shy and, true, the Toy Story interview did not go so great, but I suspect there's more to it than that, but I was unable to find any answers through Googling. Let me know if you've got the gossip (or just make some up).

###

Earlier:
Charlie Rose commencement address
Steve Jobs commencement address

Jun 14, 2010

BP Spills Coffee [video]

I giggled.

(Hat tip: Harrison)

Jun 13, 2010

Diagramming movement on the football (soccer) pitch



I'd LOVE to see more work like this, especially if you could vary the shade and/or width of the line based on speed, and if you could animate it. (Hat tip: Nicholas Felton)

130,000 hours until age 40

I wrote before about the blog I created that periodically reminds me that time is slipping away. Today it reminded me that I have 130,000 hours left until I'm 40 years old.

That's pretty frightening. It's not that I am afraid of being old and frail at age 40, it's that so much typically happens to a person by the time they reach age 40 -- that is, so many things that have not yet happened to me, and I only have 130,000 hours until I get there. And 1/3 of that time will be spent sleeping.

130,000. That's just not a very large number. You can fit that many people into some sports stadiums. $130,000 over the next 15 years is equivalent to a salary of $8,760 -- worse than your typical graduate student.

I am generally skeptical of goals and long-term plans but one long-term goal I am consciously working toward is having at least $800,000 in investments by age 40 (assuming current rates of inflation; if not it will have to be higher). To reach that $800,000 goal means that on average I need to add $5.80 to my investment account for every hour I am alive, or $8.65 for every hour I am awake(!). However, I have done the math and it is certainly possible to reach that target even if my salary never advances beyond its current modest level. Praise you, compounding interest.

I chose the $800,000 number because at 6 or 7% interest, that is roughly equivalent to my current salary. In other words, by age 40 I want my primary source of income to be my investments, not my salary. It's not because I want to be rich in money; it's because I want to rich in time. I believe the greatest luxury one can have is being able to do whatever one wants with oneself in this brief time we're given.

More World Cup probabilities

Building on yesterday's post, some probability estimates from David Pennock, creator of Yahoo!'s Predictalot application:

There’s a 37% chance Brazil and Spain will both make it to the final game; there’s only a 15% chance that neither of them will make it.

There's a 43% chance that a country that has never won before will win.

Jun 12, 2010

Statisticians predict Brazil to win the World Cup

I received the following message in an email from Anthony Goldbloom of Kaggle. Very interesting.

Justin,

You might find this interesting. Quantitative analysts at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, UBS and Danske Bank have modeled the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Kaggle, a platform for data prediction competitions, set up a competition allowing statisicians to go head-to-head with these corporate giants. The consensus forecast from these statisticians predicts Brazil to win.

For interest, the statisticians who compete on Kaggle have already proved their mettle by collectively outperforming the betting markets at predicting the outcome of the Eurovision Song Contest.

Anthony

Jun 9, 2010

Tourists vs. Locals map



To clarify, add detail. -Edward Tufte

Lovely work from Eric Fischer. (Hat tip: FD)

Jun 7, 2010

Controlling your emotions

I wrote last time that all of our emotions have a biological purpose, and if they have a unifying purpose it is something like to propagate our genes, i.e. to ensure our survival, to ensure we reproduce, and then ensure our kids’ survival. If that’s so, why, then, would anyone want to control their emotions?

Actually I think there is good reason to (try to) control our emotions. I view emotions as crude tools that rely on the ancient limbic system and cannot possibly deal with all of the complexities of modern life. Consider that we are born with the fear of snakes and spiders but not with the fear of cars and guns. Emotions evolved for specific reasons over thousands of years. And while not all emotions are innate -- emotions can be “learned” through conditioning by things that repeatedly cause (or are at least associated with) outcomes like pain or discomfort -- for certain things like guns and cars it is difficult to “learn” to fear them because you are not likely to survive enough negative encounters. The only reliable way fear of snakes, spiders, cars, or guns can emerge is through natural selection, and that takes many thousands of years.

Further evidence that emotions are un-tuned to modern life: Even people inhabiting white-collar America occasionally experience the same sinking feeling of inner dread (complete with dry-mouth and sweaty palms) that was once a perfectly suited defense mechanism mobilizing our energy to either fight or run away from saber-toothed tigers. But unlike ancient days, those feelings now often arise at the most absurd of times, like in response to delivering a company presentation. It’s absurd because (1) a company presentation has, at best, a tiny, tiny effect on your genes’ probability of survival -- no matter how badly you bore people with your bullet points and trip on your words you will still be able to get laid, and you will still be able to provide enough resources to your offspring that they survive to reproductive age (and if for some reason you can’t provide adequate resources, someone else, the government perhaps, probably will), and (2) for most people (but not Garrison Keillor) the stage-fright that we experience hinders – not helps – our delivery of a presentation, so in that sense the emotional response is counter-productive.

I have not read Seth Godin’s new book Linchpin yet, but from what I gather the premise is that in order to be professionally successful we must overcome our “lizard brain”, which is another way of saying our counter-productive emotional responses like the fight-or-flight response before taking a professional risk. I think that’s right. In fact I think that’s pretty obvious. The important point is this: Evolution seems to have favored inaction over action. E.g., don’t get too close to those people -- they might be dangerous! Don’t do that -- they might laugh at me! Our limbic system -- the emotional center responsible for an embarrassingly high percentage of our behavior -- has yet to learn that in the industrial age with market economies and unprecedented levels of absolute wealth, people aren’t so dangerous. We can quibble over whether it’s rational to fear people at all anymore, but at least we can agree people aren’t as dangerous as they used to be simply for cost-benefit economic reasons. The implication is that the way to succeed professionally (and therefore reproductively) is to (1) recognize that sometimes our emotional responses are counter-productive, and (2) when they are, (try to) change them or overcome them.

Here is an attempt to summarize everything that’s been said so far: Emotions are tools that evolved for the purpose of facilitating our genes’ survival, but, paradoxically, many of our emotional responses, by biasing us toward inaction, hinder the attainment of that goal.

I have a theory that consciousness was selected for precisely because it helped us identify when our emotions were being dumb. The unfortunate thing is that our consciousness has pitifully little power beyond identifying emotions -- we are practically helpless in controlling them. Willpower, while not quite an illusion, is certainly a weaker force than primal emotions.

Although we are practically helpless in controlling what emotions arise, there are ways in which we can encourage our emotions to conform to our conscious wishes. I came up with ten of them, ordered roughly by how cost-effective I perceive them to be:

1. When in a sour mood, stop everything and ask if you are in need of food, sleep, a potty break, fresh air, or exercise
2. Modify your environment
3. Mental tricks
4. Act the way you want to feel (especially in facial expression)
5. Hypnosis
6. Benevolent peer pressure
7. Drugs (or even a placebo)
8. Cognitive behavioral therapy
9. Meditation
10. Exposure/conditioning.

Read Jonah Lehrer, Dan Ariely, Merlin Mann, or Richard Thaler & Cass Sunstein for more on 2 and 3. And read Jonathan Haidt’s The Happiness Hypothesis for more on 7, 8, and 9.

Then I identified six common strategies that do not seem to work:

1. Taking it out on someone else
2. Willpower
3. Talking yourself out of it
4. Ignoring it
5. Talking about it with someone else
6. Taking it out on something else.

I wish I could explain why these strategies are so prevalent when they do not seem to work. I’d love to hear your theories. (Or do you even agree that these don’t work?)

In conclusion, the reason why it’s a good idea to sometimes (try to) control or change the direction of our emotions is because our emotions are often...how shall I put this...not very smart. A more eloquent writer might say not suited to the modern environment. It could be that the conscious/rational side of me is being stupid for thinking that my emotions are sometimes stupid, but I think the examples I've cited above make a strong case that at least sometimes emotions are counter-productive. It seems that our emotions guide us like a puppy on a scent trail of gene propagation, eager and energetic but a little chaotic in their approach. (You'll excuse me for the bizarre metaphor.) I’ll talk more about the purpose of gene propagation and whether and how it relates to a larger purpose next time.

Jun 6, 2010

Human knowledge

From an article in last week's New Scientist...

It is easy to forget that our behavior is governed almost entirely by the unconscious:

That we humans do much of what we do without following explicit rules is no more mysterious than my cat hunting without knowing rules about hunting or a tree growing without knowing rules about forming leaves. We only think it's mysterious if we think explicitness is the norm, but explicitness is a rare thing, restricted to humans, and used only now and again because it is often more efficient to allow causal, neural connections in the brain and body to execute an action with little (or, indeed, no) conscious calculation.

And it generally would not do you any good even if you made that knowledge explicit:

[Tacit knowledge] is knowledge stored in the muscles, nerve pathways, and synaptic connections. In principle, if not in practice, science could describe all of it. We still wouldn't be able to use it to guide our actions in a self-conscious way because we aren't built for that.

And collective knowledge is perhaps the thing that separates us most from non-life:

The one real mystery left lies in collective tacit knowledge. This is mysterious because we can't describe it and we don't know in detail how we acquire it. It is mysterious because we can only "borrow it": it is not our property but is social and collective. Take language. What constitutes our constantly changing natural language is not up to any individual, it is a matter of where the collective of language speakers takes it. [...]

Just as I think there could never be a fully automated editor of my books, I also think the limits to intelligent machines and automation will lie in a much better understanding of tacit knowledge - and especially of collective tacit knowledge. Our human interaction and social life (rather than the mere possession of the bodies once thought necessary for computers/robots to become intelligent) may provide a fundamental limit to the indefinite extension of machine intelligence.