Here are some semi-related musings:
1.
I’ve struggled to figure out why the Heat weren’t winning every game by 40 points. It doesn’t make sense.
They did possess the highest scoring margin in the league – the best predictor of winning percentage and postseason success – but at 7.5 points per game, historically, it was unremarkable.
Finally, I think I’ve found the answer. It comes from the Wall Street Journal:
Not enough touching and feeling!
The Mavericks were out- high fiving, hugging, chest bumping, and butt slapping the Heat by a two to one margin(!).
Not to speak for Udonis Haslem, but when you are trying to guard a 7-footer who shoots one-legged fade away jumpers, you need to know that your teammates will be there for a loving grope, should you start to need one.
As this graphic clearly illustrates, Mike Bibby (as usual) is mostly to blame:
Dear Miami Heat management, I’ve got a winner of an idea. It makes so much sense. Hire Me. I’ll play for the league minimum, I’ll occupy space as uselessly as Bibby, and I will more than surpass the team’s need for physical affection. I know when a player needs someone to jump on his back during a timeout, when he needs a suggestive wink, and when he needs a good bicep squeeze. All of these things, I can deliver.
2.
LeBron CHOKED blah blah. He’s not a big game player blah blah.
My friends: Statistics.
Yeah but in the Finals blah blah... or, worse, yeah but statistics blah blah...
3.
(Hat tip: Mark Larson)
4.
The win probability over the series and over the playoffs.
The Heat still had a ~36% chance of winning the series after the Game 5 loss. Vegas favored them by a pretty sizeable 5.5 points tonight. Had they won tonight, they would have been the clear favorites in Game 7. Meaning this series could have easily gone the other way.
(I refer you again to point #3.)
5.
To make myself feel not terribly unproductive while watching the games, I played with a bunch of statistics to put LeBron in historical perspective, as I'm wont to do. I looked at the stats for every season for every hall of famer and every probable hall of famer. Here are a couple of examples:
This first is an expansion on a chart that I shared in an earlier post. It shows Win Shares per 48 minutes by age:
The two biggest surprises to me were that (1) Dirk Nowitzki has had a better career than I expected — #12 overall, ahead of even Sir Charles Barkley, and (2) Whoa, Chris Paul. I knew he was good, but not #6 good. I’m going to have to start watching him more closely.
The next chart shows championships, MVP ranking, and all-star appearances by season for the same group of hall of famers and probable hall of famers:
And here is a fancypants motion chart showing all kinds of stuff. Sorry but I don’t feel compelled to explain it to you — just hit play and you will see the outlier-ness of Wilt, Kareem, Jordan, and LeBron.
Props to Basketball-Reference and Google Spreadsheets for making this possible (and relatively painless).
6.
I love the idea of the touchy-feely index. (See point #1.) The NBA needs to keep that as an official statistic. I think they might be
I can think of some other non-traditional statistics that I’d like to see tracked…
— # of words spoken: to teammates vs. opponents vs. fans, “trash” vs. not
— # of glances at the backsides of members of the dance team
— # of times eyebrows raised vs. lowered
— # of “palms up” gestures to referees
— # of times both feet were in the air vs. butt on the floor
Etc. etc. etc.
7.
Hurry up next season. Don’t make me watch baseball.
